Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments

American Economic Review

VOL. 108, NO. 8, AUGUST 2018 (pp. 2305-34)

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Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments

Abstract

Governments are present-biased toward spending. Fiscal rules are deficit limits that trade off commitment to not overspend and flexibility to react to shocks. We compare coordinated rules, chosen jointly by a group of countries, to uncoordinated rules. If governments' present bias is small, coordinated rules are tighter than uncoordinated rules: individual countries do not internalize the redistributive effect of interest rates. However, if the bias is large, coordinated rules are slacker: countries do not internalize the disciplining effect of interest rates. Surplus limits enhance welfare, and increased savings by some countries or outside economies can hurt the rest.